Paipo Gathering - Fall 2015?

[SJB]

Yes Rod the water has been crazy warm. I hope it cools down and perhaps the tropical fish will head back South. Yes...that LOLA forecast is way the heck out there...probably wishful thinking on my part. Unfortunately it offered minimal hope for El Cap swell.

[krusher74]

I hope you guys get a pumping swell. Its no joke over here in the UK, next sat/sunday are forecast to be the 3rd in a row weekend of no ridable wave, not even knee high anywhere! This is unheard of, sept is our ground-swell off shores month, el nino is kicking us in the nuts!

[Uncle Grumpy]

You are not missing anything surf wise.

http://www.surfline.com/surf-forecasts/ ... itan_4993/

[SJB]

Don't despair yet....although LOLA 10/11 prediction shows only 2-3 El Cap----Ventura Point shows 3-4 and Jalama shows 5-6. Keep the faith.

[jbw4600]

I am just checking to make sure I got all the info correct. Skiff and ??? will be arriving on SAT. 10/10. I know several others are arriving on SUN 10/11 and leaving on Tues. I have a a site at Ocean Mesa for Sun and Mon. Poobah wants to share with me. I was wondering if it would be good for me to get a site at El Capitan State Beach instead of Ocean Mesa so we would have access. There are 46 sites open for Sun and Mon. I checked just now and there still aren't anymore sites open at Ocean Mesa or El capitan for Sat. I
don't know if I am leaving on Tues or Wed. I might visit some friends. I am kind of a wimp. I don't know if I can surf more than 3 days in a row.

[SJB]

Austin Gendron Long Range Forecast today:
"Wave heights are expected to increase early next week, and run waist to head high, through the end of the week, potentially bigger at better southerly exposures, especially as more of the swell energy piles on later in the week (more pulses are due Thursday and Friday).
A stronger system moving out from under New Zealand over the weekend is expected to produce 35-40 foot seas, and could end up sending a longer-period swell for around the 13th/14th."

Too early to tell but my unprofessional expectation is that surf at El Cap could be minimal....Ventura a tad better....and Jalama the best prospect.... so I am thinking an early morning road trip North on the 12th/13th/14th could be the best bet.

Even if sufficient swell does get into El Cap....if I am not mistaken anybody coming to visit a Camper at the State Park.... will have to pay a $10 vehicle day pass. Even if you camp there it is about 1/4 mile walk to El Cap Point.....whereas the walk from Ocean Mesa is about 1/2 mile. Personally I would just make the walk from Ocean Mesa.

Skiff may have some thoughts on the subject....or not. Again....too early to call.

[Poobah]

I am just checking to make sure I got all the info correct. Skiff and ??? will be arriving on SAT. 10/10. I know several others are arriving on SUN 10/11 and leaving on Tues. I have a a site at Ocean Mesa for Sun and Mon. Poobah wants to share with me.

Actually I can't make it down for those dates. So if anyone else was looking to be uphill at Ocean Mesa...James still has some room.

[rodndtube]

I have a reservation at the Ocean Mesa on Sun and Mon, bugging out early Tues. I might drive up on Saturday and join Skiff in his RV parking slot in my "camper minivan." Guess the forecast may dictate whether I go down to San Diego on Sat and drive up Sunday, or drive up Sunday and maybe catch some surf in Ventura before venturing north to the Ocean Mesa site later in the day.

[SJB]

Surfline says:
"We're going to see a better round of SSW swell to move in around the 9th-11th thanks to recent storm activity tracking from southeast of New Zealand towards the central South Pacific. This system over-performed so far, with satellite confirmed seas in excess of 40-45'. Beyond that, we're seeing more storm activity move out from under New Zealand now and that should continue the next several days. Therefore, more fun zone SW-SSW swell is lining up for the 12th-19th. Stay tuned."

Still too far out for certainty but looks like the best action is likely to be south of Ventura or North of El Cap....i.e. heading up to Jalama still looks the best bet. So Rod I predict your San Diego idea is probably best prior heading up to El Cap....and then Jalama launch early Monday AM. By the way....which one of us idjits forgot to check the tide schedule...5+ mid morning on Monday. :+) So early early it is to catch the incoming tide and avoid the winds which typically blow out Jalama by late morning.

[skiff]

Hey, I'd say it's a pretty promising swell report for Sunday evening into Tues-Wed? But you're right, high tide is mid morning so your options are going to be an o-dark thirty charge first thing at dawn on those days, or a late afternoon session riding the tide down and having a sunset swim in the pool and bbq afterwards. Based on all this, I've moved my reservations to Monday night, so I'll be there Monday mid day, will try to surf Monday late in the day, then be around to surf Tues super early if anybody wants to do that, and then I'll be heading to SB later on Tuesday. And yes, the higher tides through the middle of the day might be good at other Gaviota Coast venues, not so much El Cap........... or there's always the driving option, though I'm not going to get into that kind of automotive ping pong. I'm posting up, and finding something close to the camp to tap, and leave it at that. If I can get two fun sessions at El Cap during all of this, maybe one early morning, one late afternoon, I'll consider this a screaming success. I'm bringing my boat to camp in and leaving my trailer at home..........so I won't be hard to find. But here's my cellie if anyone wants to check in: 805-903-3944. See you there.

[dr robert]

Looks like I'll be making a one day run at best…probably Monday but i'll ck in via cell via El Skiff-Meister. BTW…Refugio is a total paipo blast, i love to surf that thing …kind of a cross between Mandos,Secos, and San O. It's MELLOW mon!

[jbw4600]

The Surfline forecast now says that the swell will be there Saturday and Sunday and fading Monday.

[SJB]

The prognostications keep improving.

I hope you guys aren't fed up with all my pontificating....I just can't help myself.....put it down to my enthusiasm at the prospect of meeting some like minded PaipoBoard enthusiasts. Thanks for making it all possible Rod. So....here I go again.

1. Weather is projected to be great for camping. Highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
2. Water still in the 70 range!!!!
3. Mid morning high tide is a bummer but I'll get over it.
4. I do think however that Skiff maybe overly optimistic about El Cap prospects...or maybe not????
5. Here is the worst case scenario...or best?....from my perspective. I am going to arrive mid afternoon Sunday. If a miracle happens and El Cap is worthy a late afternoon session.
6. Collegial fireside chat Sunday afternoon/evening.
7. If El Cap was worthy Sunday evening than probably worthy early Monday morning.... however....if not worthy....my SUGGESTION is to hit the road in the dark Monday at 6AM so we can catch 7AM sunrise at Jalama. I will have a hard boiled egg and energy bar for breakfast and a cold cup of coffee ready to go in a travel mug (time is of the essence). Walk down to Tarantulas (20 minute walk so pack accordingly...I will have my surf gear in a back pack) and catch some waves on the incoming tide. If the tide swamps it out before we are out of gas then Cracks is on the walk back and it likes a higher tide. Then once we are all gassed and enjoying the beautiful late morning we continue our walk back to the Jalama Grill for one of their excellent burgers and a beer to review the morning's magic. Back to Ocean Mesa to meet new arrivals.
6. Tuesday morning....peat and repeat...or not.
PS....The following blog gives you a taste of the potential for magic at Jalama if El Cap is not happening:
https://miketavaressup.wordpress.com/20 ... -7-10-sup/

FINALLY....IT WILL ALL BECOME CRYSTAL CLEAR BY SUNDAY EVENING AND WE CAN TAKE A VOTE. LOOKING FORWARD TO IT.

[jbw4600]

I am now planning on getting down there late morning or early afternoon on Saturday, because the Surfline forecast still says that the main swell will be on Sat and Sun. I don't know if anyone will be there by then. I am still going to stay at a hotel Sat night, because Ocean Mesa and El Capitan don't have any spaces. I still be there thru Tuesday. If anyone is around on Sat., give me a call or email me and maybe we could go surfing.

James 415-246-1017

[rodndtube]

I am now planning on getting down there late morning or early afternoon on Saturday, because the Surfline forecast still says that the main swell will be on Sat and Sun. I don't know if anyone will be there by then. I am still going to stay at a hotel Sat night, because Ocean Mesa and El Capitan don't have any spaces. I still be there thru Tuesday. If anyone is around on Sat., give me a call or email me and maybe we could go surfing.

James 415-246-1017

I am heavily leaning to driving up on Saturday. Whereabouts were you thinking of surfing and staying... up north of Santa Barbara or down around Ventura? I will send my cell phone via private messaging.

[jbw4600]

Hi Rod,
I have never surfed down there. I got a room at Motel 6 in Lompoc, because all the Santa Barbara hotels were way over priced. I was thinking about surfing at El Capitan or one of those other spots nearby. Ventura would be more driving for me. But I could come down there, if it is better. I could change my room to further down south. The forecast also says the Jalama will be big. But I surf beach breaks all the time and was hoping to get some different.

[skiff]

Hey, I'm pretty optimistc based on what I'm seeing?

"....Friday the 9th more SSW energy arrives, wave heights should hold in the waist to chest high+ range with larger set waves at focal spots. Wave heights could start building from the WSW late. Saturday the 10th wave heights are expected to pick up overnight with the arrival of SW-WSW energy. Standouts could be running chest to overhead high+. With better exposures potentially seeing head high to well overhead surf. Sunday the 11th WSW eases and WNW-NW swell arrives helping maintain surf at standout W-SW exposures, and increase size at the more NW spots. Standout breaks are expected to build into the chest to overhead+ range, with potentially larger set waves going well overhead at better combo breaks and top exposures...."

Monday the 12th WNW-NW swell holds size in the chest to overhead+ range.

This will generate a fairly sizable fetch to the W-WNW of the region that will likely continue through the weekend. Basically we’re looking at a pulse of medium to long-period WSW-SW (230-260) that will dominate long-period southern hemi swell Friday night/Saturday with around 5-7 feet of deepwater swell at 13-15 second periods. The swell will back off quickly Sunday just to be replaced by the WNW-NW (280-300) that arrives early and will build to a peak early Monday with 5 to 7 feet at 11-12 seconds. Overall the mix of swell could end up bringing sold head high-well overhead surf through the weekend, lingering in the chest to overhead+ range at W-NW exposures through the first half of next week.

Tuesday the 13th WNW-NW continues to bring chest to ovehread+ surf to standouts...."

[SJB]

As a retired guy I missed that Monday is Columbus day holiday. Oh well. I am going up to Jalama tomorrow morning for a sunrise test run. It may prove too challenging for these old bones (read chiropractic adjustment). Will advise. Skiff's El Cap call may prove pure genius. What a fickle sport....maybe wave machines will fix the uncertainty but undoubtedly at the cost of the adventure and magic. Looking forward to Ocean Mesa rendevous Sunday afternoon to sort it all out.

[skiff]

Genius...? Lucky may be more accurate. But this scenario is looking more and more 'possible' when I look at the four or five different forecasting sites. To be a lifelong surfer, you have to major in 'optimism', but sometimes, good things happen to good people.

[rodndtube]

Hi all,

Have not heard from Nels or Tomas as of late... are we going to see you guys?

Latest update: Kage had to cancel due to some serious car issues that just cropped up. Really sorry he won't be able to make it. So, I have a test space at my campsite (maybe two spaces... not sure how large they are, I am sleeping in my "camper minivan"). My campsite reservation is for Sun and Mon nights.

I spoke to James earlier this morning... is is approaching the Jalama area and staying up there this evening.

Best way to reach me is via cell phone voice or text at 286 dash 4944 (area 443), or via email: rodndtube@gmail.com

I am shoving off from Orange County early in the morning after a long refreshing sleep last night.

Good chance I will stop in Ventura for a surf on the way up. Not sure where, exactly, as C Street is the only spot of familiarity. Another paipo guy, Ken, live south towards the marina, so I might check that out.